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TEST 3 new version smoother entry and data cleaner...

Precision Stop (6-12) Multiple test on huge data set

These tests are on the new version of the simulation unit with correct profit feature.

Risk profile set to 0.25 of account in all tests
Gearing TARGET is in all tests = 4.5
Equity starting at £10,000 all tests
Slippage set to 20% (note in these initial test 0.4 multiple gave a huge profit way above the slow settings) slippage is too low i think.
Spread 1.5 per side
Max gearing( in settings) 7
Max trader day 123
Min percent 0.01
Max percent .20 this will affect slow system settings and may need increasing>>>>>>>>>> NOTE!

Testing of Precision stop (6-12) Para multiple on 123 various stock, I have chosen only a few good system stocks, the rest are chosen because they were known to me. Ten years data tested.

Test run from Jan 3rd 2000 to August 12th 2010

These tests used the same raw database and copied and pasted it and ran indicator builder over it each time.

Candover Investments, JKX oil and gas, Quintain estates, Pendragon, JJB sports, Johnson press, Royal bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB, Unite group, Polar capital tech trust. and various others...see excel list of stocks used

Before the test, I predict 0.83 multiple will work best....lets see.

Purpose of this test is to ascertain the best GLOBAL multiple settings in a simulation run over realistic portfolio over a large amount of sample.

Test	Multiple	Max per	Max cost	Trade div	Profit	Percent	Max dd	Max UW	Win-L	R-R	Trades	Gearing	10 Year MAR	Slippage
1	0.5	.2	4.2%	78	£15,358,397	153,484%	19.34%	202	.414	1.902	25,104	4.457	1836	20%
2	4.01	.6	45%	17	£17,000	70%	82%	1793	na	na	na	4.41	na	20%
3	1	.2			£983k
4	0.25	.2	4%	65	£11,174,238,823,000	12 digits	16.77	23	.405	2.79	40,777	4.32		20%

Bugs

Some evidence of errors at end of testing.

Large dump in equity right before the last day of the test. ( see email send regarding end_dump)

Too much profit for 0.25 multiple, the only way to solve this bug is to make a list of trades and then worth through them.

Expectations from £10,000 over ten years...

Per anum growth rate	Result
5%	£16k
10%	£26k
15%	£40k
20%	£62k
25%	£93k
30%	£138k
35%	£201k
40%	£289k
45%	£411k
50%	£576k
55%	£800k
60%	£1.1 million
65%	£1.5 million
70%	£2 million
75%	£2.7 million
80%	£3.5 million
85%	£4.7 million
90%	£6.1 million
95%	£7.9 million
100%	£10 million+
200%	£590 million+

last test was 81 divisor and 4.05% max trade, and had 4.53 gearing, so its still too high

Vertical axis = Millions x 10 FINE TUNING TEST (New tests in green) Horizontal axis = Multiple setting
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	.34	.36	.38	.40	.42	.44	.46	.48	.50	.52	.54	.55	.56	.58	.60	.62	.64

Vertical axis = Millions x 10 Old test 2 Horizontal axis = Multiple setting

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	4	1.8	1.6	1.4	1.2	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.25